The mere prospect of stricter immigration controls under President-elect Donald Trump is sending tremors through America’s communities and labor markets. Policies have yet to materialize, but the fear they have sparked is already reshaping lives and livelihoods, casting a shadow over industries that rely on immigrant labor.
In Chicago’s Little Village, a vibrant hub often likened to the “Mexico of the Midwest,” business owners are feeling the sting. Sam Sanchez, a restaurateur and immigration advocate, describes a scene of sharp decline. “Some restaurants are seeing sales drop by as much as 50%,” Sanchez said. “People are too scared to go out, to work, to do anything. It’s fear of the unknown, and it’s paralyzing.”
This fear, Sanchez warns, could have a domino effect. In the restaurant industry, where margins are thin and labor is essential, even a small disruption can lead to closures. “And restaurants are just the beginning,” he said. “Millions of undocumented workers underpin industries like agriculture, healthcare, and construction. If they vanish, so does the stability of those industries.”
Across the United States, undocumented immigrants are an integral part of the economy. Giovanni Peri of UC Davis estimates that 8.5 million undocumented individuals are employed in critical sectors. These workers fill roles that are hard to replace, especially in industries facing chronic labor shortages. Deporting them en masse, Peri argues, would destabilize an already fragile labor market, leading to slower growth and even economic contraction.
Agriculture is perhaps the most vulnerable sector. Undocumented immigrants make up the majority of farm labor, with many working in the fields for over a decade. Ron Estrada, CEO of Farmworker Justice, paints a stark picture of what deportations could mean for the industry. “Imagine cutting the agricultural workforce in half,” Estrada said. “You’re looking at food waste, price hikes, and a threat to food security.”
Despite their importance, these workers have few legal protections. Programs like the H-2A visa offer temporary labor solutions but fall short of providing the stability needed for year-round agricultural work. Estrada and others have long called for reforms to create pathways to citizenship, but progress remains elusive.
The ripple effects of labor shortages extend beyond agriculture. The restaurant industry, still recovering from pandemic-related disruptions, offers a grim case study. During COVID-19, many establishments struggled to reopen, citing a lack of available workers. Sanchez recalls how restaurants operated only part-time, unable to meet demand. “The workers who kept us afloat were largely undocumented,” he said. “They’ve been here for decades, paying taxes and contributing, yet they live under constant threat.”
The economic implications of deportations are complex. While some proponents argue that reducing the undocumented population could ease inflation, economists warn that the loss of workers would exacerbate labor shortages and slow economic growth. Michael Feroli of JPMorgan predicts that tighter immigration controls could reduce job creation significantly, particularly in low-skill sectors.
For immigrants like Joanne Eriaku, the uncertainty is deeply personal. A single mother who fled Uganda with her sons, Eriaku has built a thriving business in the U.S. Yet she worries about what the future holds, particularly for her eldest son, who will soon face the asylum process independently. “We’ve worked so hard to build a life here,” she said. “The idea of losing that because of politics is devastating.”
Trump’s administration faces significant challenges in implementing its immigration agenda. Deportations on the scale proposed would require immense resources and could provoke widespread resistance, both from sanctuary cities and from businesses that depend on immigrant labor.
As the country waits for clarity, the fear and uncertainty surrounding these policies continue to ripple outward, affecting not just undocumented immigrants but the entire economy. At stake is not just the future of millions of workers but the industries and communities that rely on their contributions.
